A special report from The Economist Intelligence Unit.
The world’s major industries are all set for further growth in 2019, but there are some worrying risks.
This report highlights five major risks that could affect our industry forecasts for the year ahead:
- The US-China trade war: we have cut our 2019 growth forecasts for the automotive and consumer-goods sectors in particular compared with six months ago.
- A global slowdown: even those countries not directly affected by growing trade barriers could be vulnerable to a change in business confidence in 2019, with the most likely impact being on emerging markets.
- Brexit: the UK’s exit from the EU in March 2019 will be a drag on sectors including financial services, automotive and healthcare, regardless of any deal that is struck.
- Sanctions on Iran: the US’s decision to backtrack from the international Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action could push up global oil prices in 2019.
- Cybersecurity and technology risks: a tussle for technological dominance is at the core of the US-China trade dispute, while regulators are also struggling to ensure safe connectivity.